COMOSPROPHECIES

The odds of impact in the year 2029 by a recently discovered asteroid are unlikely to change much in the next few weeks, astronomers said Monday.

Last Thursday, Dec. 23, scientists announced that a space rock named 2004 MN4 had about a 1-in-300 chance of striking Earth on April 13, 2029. On Friday, the risk was upgraded as more observations rolled in. The asteroid was given an unprecedented risk rating of 4 on the Torino Scale, which means it warrants careful monitoring. The odds at various times were put at 1-in-63 and 1-in-45.

As of Monday, the chances of an impact on April 13, 2029 stood at about 1-in-40, or 2.6 percent.

Experts point out that means a 97.4 percent chance the giant boulder will miss, and they stress that the odds are likely to go down to zero, eventually, when more detailed observations of its path are made. Significant revision — if it comes — probably won’t happen soon.

“Slow changes should be expected for the next days and weeks, but probably nothing too dramatic unless the Arecibo [Observatory] radar weighs in late January or early February,” Don Yeomans, as asteroid expert at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, told SPACE.com on Monday.